[inti-net] Developing autocracy in Iraq

http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2012/1094/re112.htm

19 - 25 April 2012
Issue No. 1094
Region
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875

Developing autocracy in Iraq

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki is doing all he can to cow anyone
defying his increasingly autocratic rule, writes Salah Nasrawi

The detention of the Kurdish head of Iraq's electoral commission on
charges of alleged graft has seen renewed accusations that Shia Prime
Minister Nuri Al-Maliki is increasing his dictatorial hold over Iraq, with
even one of Al-Maliki's closest allies comparing him with former Iraqi
president Saddam Hussein.

The arrest of Faraj Al-Haidari, head of the independent electoral
commission on Thursday amid wrangling in the country's parliament over the
selection of a new body, raised fears that Al-Maliki might be planning to
shelve next year's provincial elections and national elections due to be
held in 2014.

The country is already gripped in its worst political crisis since the
US-led invasion of 2003, and this new development may further escalate the
crisis. Sectarian killings have also increased, with Sunni insurgents in
Iraqi mounting a series of attacks against Shias.

Al-Haidari was detained for two days along with another member of the
commission on charges that he had used the commission's budget to pay
kickbacks to bureaucrats at the capital's real estate records office to
officially register land that commission officials had received from the
government.

Al-Haidari is a senior member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by the
president of the Kurdish regional government, Masoud Barzani, and his
arrest has inflamed the political bickering and triggered charges that
al-Maliki is intent on destroying the electoral process in Iraq.

Al-Haidari was released on bail, meaning that he cannot exercise his
official functions until he has cleared his name. The move came as
tensions between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdish
regional government over oil resources and power-sharing rose.

It also came against the background of a dispute between al-Maliki and the
leaders of the Iraqiya bloc, an alliance of Sunni parties, who accuse
Al-Maliki of trying to marginalise the country's Sunnis.

A Kurdish spokesman blasted the detention of the two senior commission
officials, saying it was a "clear violation and serious danger to the
political process". The arrests "represent a coup against efforts to
rebuild the country," he said, warning that they could harm the future
elections.

Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, whose Al-Sadr Movement holds 40 seats in the
country's parliament as well as key posts in Al-Maliki's cabinet, accused
the prime minister of being behind the arrests in an attempt to postpone
the elections.

Al-Sadr warned that by failing to stand up to al-Maliki's ambitions, Iraq
was heading back to the "rule of one party and one leader," a reference to
Saddam Hussein and the former ruling Iraqi Baath Party.

Haidar Al-Mullah, a leading MP belonging to the Iraqiya bloc, also
strongly condemned the arrests, accusing Al-Maliki of "dictatorship" and
warning that he was targeting the upcoming elections.

The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, whose mandate is to work
closely with the country's electoral commission, said that it was
monitoring the situation and that "due process must apply in accordance
with the principles enshrined in the Iraqi constitution."

The criticism further ratcheted up the political tension, with Barzani and
top Iraqiya leaders warning of the possible break-up of the ruling
coalition and indicating that they would seek a no confidence vote in
al-Maliki in the country's parliament.

Sunni insurgents have stepped up their attacks on Shia civilians over
recent days, apparently in an attempt to undermine government authority.

On Monday, gunmen shot dead four Shia farmers just north of Baghdad.
Police officials said that two carloads of attackers had opened fire
indiscriminately in the predominantly Sunni village of Al-Rashidiyah.

The assault followed a series of attacks on Shias this month, including
the bombing of houses and slaughter of Shia pilgrims. In some areas north
of Baghdad leaflets were distributed telling Shias to leave their
neighbourhoods or be killed.

The present crisis is the result of the failure of Iraq's sectarian blocs
to make progress in convening a national conference aiming to tackle
differences over oil revenues and power-sharing, among other issues.

The arrests have built on already- existing tensions from other political
disputes, and tensions have been running high since December, when
Al-Maliki moved against two senior Sunni politicians following the
withdrawal of the last US troops from the country, nine years after the
invasion that toppled Saddam.

Baghdad has also accused the Kurdish regional government of smuggling oil
produced in the region across the border, instead of fulfilling export
obligations. The Baghdad government claimed that its losses from smuggling
had exceeded $5 billion over the past two years.

Meanwhile, Kurdistan has stopped oil exports, saying that Baghdad has
withheld $1.5 billion owed to foreign companies working in the region. The
two sides are also at odds over disputed territory in northern Iraq and
dozens of energy contracts awarded by Kurdistan.

Earlier, the Kurdish region gave refuge to Iraqi vice-president Tariq
Al-Hashemi, a Sunni politician from the Iraqiya bloc, who was wanted on
charges of allegedly running a death squad. The Kurdish authorities then
allowed Al-Hashemi to leave Iraq.

The Sunni Iraqiya bloc has been at loggerheads with al-Maliki for some
time, accusing him of trying to consolidate his power at its expense.
Iraqiya boycotted the parliament and cabinet briefly in December, but bloc
members later returned to their jobs on the understanding that outstanding
problems would be solved at the projected national conference.

Over recent months, key Kurdish, Shia and Sunni leaders have expressed
their distrust of Al-Maliki, and the political chaos in the country has
strengthened beliefs that he is trying to create a one- man system of rule
in Baghdad and become an authoritarian ruler.

The arrest of Al-Haidari has been seen as an attempt to gain control of
the electoral commission after Al-Maliki's own State of Law bloc failed to
pass a no confidence vote in Al-Haidari in July 2011. The bloc has also
refused to extend by two to three months the terms of current electoral
commission members, these due to expire on 28 April.

Critics fear that Al-Maliki, who controls the army, security forces and
intelligence services, might be trying to subdue all others to his
autocratic tendencies.

They accuse him of relying on the country's compromised judiciary as a
weapon against his political opponents, while concealing crimes carried
out by his cronies, and they criticise him for using Iraq's corrupt
bureaucracy and brutal police against his enemies.

Last week, members of the parliament's budget and finance committee sent
Al-Maliki a letter warning him not to interfere in central bank policy
after he had reportedly said that he wanted to bring the bank under his
authority.

The move came amid a sharp decline in the value of the Iraqi dinar,
suffocating businesses which rely on it to buy US dollars to purchase
foreign imports.

Maysoun Al-Damalouji, a spokesperson for Iraqiya, accused Al-Maliki of
trying to control the bank in order to facilitate the transfer of US
dollars to Iran and Syria, both of which are under international
sanctions.

While developments over the past four months may have shown that Al-Maliki
is indeed trying to consolidate his power and debar his opponents from
ruling the country, it is unlikely that he can succeed in post-Saddam
Iraq.

Dissatisfaction with Al-Maliki's government is evident even among Shias
who have been peeling away from supporting it, fed up with the
government's corruption and disillusioned by its failure to carry through
promised reforms.

What happens next is largely Al-Maliki's choice. He could respond to the
pressure for change by sharing power with others, or he could go his own
way. His record in government and rhetoric suggest that he will lean
towards the second course
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